摘要
提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的机务维修差错调查模型算法,根据已经建立的机务人为诱因导致事故/事故征候模型,利用贝叶斯原理编程实现了该算法。利用该算法对中国民航飞行学院2001-2011年的机务人为有引导的事故/事故征候依次进行分析并验证,得到了相应的事故诱因概率排序。该算法克服了样本空间不足,在事故发生以后能够在引入其他证据的情况下根据以前的经验概率得到新的事故诱因概率排序,为民航机务维修差错调查提供了可靠的技术支持。
A new method of investigation model about aircraft maintenance human error based on bayesian network was proposed in this paper. A computer program was designed to realize this method according to maintenance hu- man error accidents/incidents model. This new method was used to explore the relationship and interaction of main- tenance human error accidents/incidents in Civil Aviation Flight University of China from 2001 to 2011, the proba- bility sequence of cause factors was achieved. This method overcame the deficiencies attributed to the limitation of the sample capacity, the new probability sequence of cause factors would be achieved by using this method after an accident happened according to old probability sequence. It provides a reliable technique to aircraft maintenance human error investigating and further reducing aircraft accident rates.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2012年第8期102-105,共4页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
中国民航飞行学院科技基金项目(J2010-60)资助
关键词
贝叶斯网络
机务维修差错
调查模型
算法
bayesian network
maintenance error
investigation model
method
