现代农业生态环境安全预警体系研究——以天津市为例

Pre-alarm system of agricultural ecological environment safety——Taking Tianjin as an example

以天津沿海都市现代农业为出发点,针对农业发展转型时期的现状和特点,从农业与生态环境协调发展的角度出发,选取指标对天津农业生态环境进行预警研究。预警指标体系包括农业自然资源环境、面源污染、人口、社会经济条件、农业发展、科技发展等内容,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重;并在专家咨询的基础上划分预警区间,预警天津农业生态环境状态。最后提出了促进天津农业与生态环境协调发展的建议。

Facing the current situation and characteristics during the transition period for agricultural development and based on the coordinated development of agriculture and ecological environment,the paper taken Tianjin coastal urban modern agriculture as research area to establish indicator system of agro-ecological environment security warning.The indicator system included agricultural natural resources,area-source pollution,population,socio-economic condition,agricultural development,and technology development,which applied AHP method to determine weights.The paper also divided the warning intervals based on experts＇ advice.Finally according to the warning results,some proposals which could promote Tianjin agriculture and eco-environmental development were advanced.