摘要
基于协整理论和指数增长模型,分析预测了中国电力需求长期增长趋势,基于协整研究的结果,指出电力需求和经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,考虑到数据在生成过程中的变化,采用1983—2005年子样本拟合指数增长模型预测电力需求,预测效果良好。
Based on the co-integration theory and exponential growth model, this paper analyzes and predicts the growth trend of long term power demand of China. The co-integration analysis shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between power demand and economic growth, and considering the changes in the data generation process, the 1983-2005 sub-samples is fitted with exponential growth model to forecast the power demand and the predictive effect is good.
出处
《科技情报开发与经济》
2012年第18期112-114,132,共4页
Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy
基金
江苏省高校哲学社会研究基金项目"江苏农民工建立个人养老金计划的可行性分析与管理模式研究"(项目编号:09SJD910001)
关键词
协整理论
电力需求
经济增长
分析预测
co-integration theory
power demand
economic growth
analysis and prediction
