21世纪:通货紧缩与通货膨胀谁主沉浮

The 21st Century: Inflation or Deflation

世纪之交 ,通货紧缩的现实 ,对通货膨胀提出了挑战 ;通货紧缩就是指价格水平的持续下降 ;由于高新科技的迅猛发展对价格水平运动具有两重作用 ,高新科技的迅猛发展并不必然导致劳动生产率的提高和价格水平的降低 ,甚至出现“劳动生产率悖论” ,成为促使价格水平上涨的一个动因 ,所以“技术型通货紧缩”否定不了通货膨胀 ;当前世界各国对付通货紧缩措施的实质都是通货膨胀的政策 ;从对 2 1世纪通货紧缩的展望来看 ,通货紧缩也不否定通货膨胀 ,通货膨胀远未投降 ,它只是披上了新的更加危险的外衣。从全球的经济现实来看 ,促使通货膨胀和价格水平上涨的的结构性因素及微观内生机制依然存在 ,通货膨胀并没有“寿终正寝” ,世纪性的物价上涨并未结束 ,通货膨胀依然是新世纪经济学的主要“敌人” ,人类驾驭和对付通货膨胀的道路仍很漫长。

At the turn of the century, deflation is challenging inflation. Deflation means decrease in the movement of price.The speeded development of high techs,which has dual effects on the movement of price level, does not necessarily result in the increase of productivity and decrease of price. There even appears labour productivity paradox. This has become one of the causes that push the price up. So deflation of technological type can not negate inflation. Presently throughout the world, the policy dealing with the problem of deflation is actually the policy dealing with inflation. Looking into the 21st century, deflation will not replace inflation. Inflation does not at all recede. It only disguises itself and has more harms. Judging from the present economic situation in the world, there still exist the structural factors and microcosmic endo mechanism, which push price up. Inflation has not totally perished. It is still the enemy of economy in the new century. There is yet a long way to go before man holds it under absolute control.