系统视角下的中原经济区发展趋势预测与分析

Prediction and analysis of central China economic district with a system view

随着中原经济区规划受到普遍重视,为把握区域发展中存在的利弊因素需要从系统工程的角度对河南省下一阶段发展趋势进行研究.首先应当看到经济发展受多方面因素影响和制约,需要将多方面影响经济协调发展的因素纳入衡量体系;其次在经济持续增长的背景下应当警惕其中存在的不稳定因素;为此小样本预测方法引入的区域经济预测分析中具有必要性.通过系统论角度的建模分析得到了河南省"十二五"期间经济系统全方面的预测,结果表明河南省经济在未来"十二五"期间将保持稳定快速发展,同时面临的投资泡沫等压力也随之上升.

with more attention given to the plan of central China economic district, ti si necessary to study Henan province from the pespective of system engneer for holding the advantage and disadvantage. First, the economic de- velopment is influnced by muhifactors, which should be adopted in the evaluation index system. Second, the unsta- bility factors should be paid close attention, and it is necessary to use the small sample prediction method in the re- gional economic development. The model of system view can get the prediction results of Henan province during the 12th Five - year Plan, the results show Henan will have a stable and relatively high speed of economic develop- ment, but face a rising pressure of investment risk.