三元悖论框架下德国经济政策组合研究及启示——以1971—1990年为例

Research on German Economic Policy Combination under the Framework of Ternary Paradox and its Enlightenments:From 1971 To 1990

三元悖论理论因为其直观性被当做相关制度选择的标准,在研究了1971—1990年间德国的经验后发现,尽管在三元悖论框架下选择浮动汇率制度和资本开放,获得货币政策的独立性是可行的,但德国中央银行为了经济的良好运行,会有选择性地放弃货币政策的独立性。德国的经验告诉我们,资本账户的开放应该以货币政策的有效性为基础,一国经济政策的选择应该以经济长期稳定均衡发展为依据,单纯以货币政策的独立性作为政策选择的参考标准会有失偏颇。

Because of its vivacity, ternary paradox theory has been taken as the standard for related sys-tem choice. After doing the research on the experience in Germany from 1971 to 1990, the author found that even it was feasible to get the monetary policy independence by choosing floating exchange rate system and capital opening under the frame of ternary paradox, the Germany central bank would selec-tively give up the monetary policy independence for economic good operation. The German experience told us the opening of capital account should take the effectiveness of monetary policy as the base, and the choice of economic policy for a country should take the long-term steady development of economy as the base. It is not correct to take the only monetary policy independence as a reference standard for policy choice.