基于结构方程模型的我国中部地区消费与经济增长关系研究

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between the Consumption and Economic Growth in the Central Areas of China Based on the Structural Equation Model

利用1990—2010年中部8省(市)的省级面板数据,构建了我国中部地区消费与经济增长关系的结构方程模型,运用极大似然估计方法对我国中部地区消费与经济增长关系进行实证分析.结果表明:中部地区消费和经济增长之间的路径系数均为正值,说明我国中部地区的消费对经济增长有明显的促进作用.其中又以民生消费对经济增长的促进作用最大,因此,要促进经济的发展,就要想办法增加民生消费.同时,作者给出了用结构方程模型研究消费与经济增长关系的一种新尝试.

This paper constructs the relationship between consumption and economic growth by a structure equation model and uses the provincial panel data of 8 central provinces （municipalities） from 1990 to 2010 in the central areas of China, using maximum likelihood estimation methods to analyse empirically the relationship between the consumption and economic growth in the central areas of China. The result shows that in the central areas of China the path coefficients between consumption and economic growth are all positive,which suggests in the central areas of China the consumption has significant positive effects on the economic growth, and promoting function of usually consumer is the largest on the economic growth. To promote the development of economy, it is necessary to increase usually consumer. Also in this paper, it gives a new try to use a structural equation model to research the relationship between consumption and economic growth.