中国财政收支相互关系的实证检验

An Empirical Testing on the Relationship between Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure in China

采用边限检验对我国财政收支的长时间序列进行考察，结果发现：1952～1980年间我国财政收支存在“双向因果”的长期均衡关系；1981～1994年间财政收支关系难以判定；而1995～2009年间存在“以收定支”的长期均衡关系。短期来看，财政调控应着力控制财政收入过快增长，进行适度减税。

This paper aims to examine the relationship between China＇s fiscal revenue and expenditure with the long time series by bounds testing for ARDL model. It concludes that there is a bilateral causal relationship between China＇ s fiscal revenue and expenditure from 1952 to 1980. and there is difficulty determining from 1981 to 1994, but fiscal revenue- and- expenditure from 1995 to 2009.The paper suggests that the excessive growth of fiscal revenue be controlled and a modest tax cuts be implemented in the short tenn.