摘要
采用边限检验对我国财政收支的长时间序列进行考察,结果发现:1952~1980年间我国财政收支存在“双向因果”的长期均衡关系;1981~1994年间财政收支关系难以判定;而1995~2009年间存在“以收定支”的长期均衡关系。短期来看,财政调控应着力控制财政收入过快增长,进行适度减税。
This paper aims to examine the relationship between China's fiscal revenue and expenditure with the long time series by bounds testing for ARDL model. It concludes that there is a bilateral causal relationship between China' s fiscal revenue and expenditure from 1952 to 1980. and there is difficulty determining from 1981 to 1994, but fiscal revenue- and- expenditure from 1995 to 2009.The paper suggests that the excessive growth of fiscal revenue be controlled and a modest tax cuts be implemented in the short tenn.
出处
《财经论丛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期20-26,共7页
Collected Essays on Finance and Economics
基金
2010年浙江省高校人文社科(财政学)重点研究基地资助项目
关键词
财政收支
双向因果关系
以收定支
fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure
fiscal synchronization
fiscal revenue - and - expendi- ture