4PL模式下供应链资源整合的多回合博弈决策分析

Multi-round Game Decision Analysis of Supply Chain Resources Integration in 4PL

为了对4PL模式下供应链资源整合的收益与风险关系进行系统量化研究,本文从整合成本输入及整合收益输出关系入手,在整合运作框架基础上,从参与整合活动主、客体双方的整合收益与风险的系统性权衡与量化角度对资源整合的多回合博弈决策问题进行了分析。通过将博弈过程合理分段,并采用模糊隶属函数分别描述博弈子过程特征和资源个体的整合收益与风险指标变动特征,提出了以多回合博弈过程为变量的综合评价决策方法,真实地在柔性整合决策过程中反映了博弈双方的主、客观状况及其在不同谈判阶段的获利与风险心理。最后,通过算例验证,决策方法可行、有效。

In order to make a systemic and quantified analysis on supply chain resource integration in 4PL trom the perspective of collaborative benefits and risks. This paper analyzes the muhi-round game decision problem from the angle of the systemic quantitative description and weight on the revenue and risk of the subject＇ s and object＇ s integration, based on the operational framework of the resource integration from the basic cost input and revenue output relations. This paper presents a method to make decision by building a synthetic evaluation func- tion based on a rational division to game process and the description of both characters of stages and characters of change of resources individuals＇ evaluation indices by Fuzzy Membership Function of soft computing. It reflects two game sides＇ subjective and objective conditions and their benefit and risk psychology at different negotiation stages in the flexible integration decision process. Finally, it is shown that the decision method is very effective by a case.