天基再入飞行器作战效能综合评估

Comprehensive Evaluation of Operational Effectiveness for Space-based Re-entry Vehicle

通过天基再入飞行器(SRV)作战效能综合评估,定性和定量分析得出影响SRV作战效能的主要因素,为SRV总体设计提供参考和建议。在对SRV任务威胁和SRV与防御系统攻防对抗分析基础上,针对SRV自身特性,建立了SRV作战效能指标体系,应用作战效能多指标综合评估法建立了综合评估模型;根据SRV作战效能指标体系,依次建立了SRV任务可靠度模型、反应能力模型、机动能力指标模型,重点建立了突防能力、命中能力和毁伤能力指标的模型,进行了效能评估结果计算。最后对影响SRV作战效能的关键因素进行了分析,结果表明:缩减SRV的雷达反射截面积(RCS)有助于提高突防概率和增加作战效能;增大SRV速度则可以降低防御系统的拦截次数和拦截命中概率,从而提高其作战效能;提高SRV对目标的打击精度将提高其命中概率和作战效能。

Abstract： A comprehensive evaluation of operational effectiveness for space-based re-entry vehicle （SRV） is conducted in this paper. Based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis, the major factors that affected the operational effectiveness are derived, which provides a reference and proposals for the SRV concept design. By the analysis of attack and defense engagement and the faced threats during the mission, aim at the characteristic of SRV, operational effectiveness index system and comprehensive evaluation model for SRV are established separate by AHP method and Multi-Index comprehensive evaluation method. According to operational effectiveness index system of SRV, modeling of SRV mission reliability, the reaction capacity and viability capacity are carried out, and especially focuses on the modeling of SRV penetration ability, hit probability and damages probability, along with the operational effectiveness evaluation results. Finally, the major factors that affect the effectiveness of SRV are discussed. Results show that SRV with reduced radar cross section （RCS） can improve penetration and increase the operational effectiveness ~ SRV with increased speed can reduce the fire probability of both defense systems and intercept missile, thereby with improved operational effectiveness; raising the hitting accuracy can increase the hit probability and operational effectiveness.