人民币实际汇率对厦门市贸易收支影响的实证分析

An empirical analysis on the effect of RMB real exchange rate on Xiamen trade balance

利用2006年8月至2011年9月的人民币实际有效汇率与厦门市贸易收支的月度数据,通过建立向量自回归模型对各经济变量关系进行实证分析,由此发现人民币实际有效汇率与厦门市贸易收支之间存在长期协整关系,但并不显著,即人民币实际汇率并非是影响厦门市贸易收支的主要因素,汇率政策的变动对改善厦门市贸易收支的影响无明显效果。

With the monthly data of RMB real effective exchange rate and Xiamen trade balance from Aug, 2006 to Sep, 2011, an empirical analysis of each economic variable relationship is conducted through establishing vector regression models. The long-term cointegration relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate and Xiamen trade balance is discovered but insignificant. There-fore, the RMB real exchange rate is not the main factor to affect Xiamen trade balance. Exchange rate balance is not efficient for improvement of Xiamen trade balance.