我国省际经济增长路径收敛性的动态检验——来自自相关函数(ACF)方法的新证据

Dynamic Convergence Test for Provincial Economic Growth Path in China——New Evidence from Auto Correlation Function Method

本文在"纵向"收敛和"横向"收敛新的收敛分析框架下,采用一种新的检验方法——自相关函数(Auto Correlation Function,ACF)方法,对1952～2007年间我国省际经济增长路径的动态敛散性进行了计量检验。结果显示:北京、山西、辽宁等13个省市存在着向自身稳态水平逼近的"纵向"收敛趋势;北京、辽宁、上海等13个省市存在着向共同均衡稳态水平靠拢的"横向"收敛趋势。北京、辽宁、上海、福建等10个省市同时出现了"纵向"收敛和"横向"收敛趋势。各个省市完成收敛过程所需要的时间存在较大差异。

Within a new convergence analysis framework of ＂vertical convergence＂ and ＂horizontal convergence＂, this paper studies dynamic convergence and divergence of provincial economic growth path in China from 1952 - 2007 by using a latest method- AutoCor-relation Function method （ACF）. The result shows that： there is a trend of ＂vertical＂ convergence in 13 provinces and cities like Beijing, Shanxi and Limning; and there is a trend of ＂horizontal＂ convergence in 13 provinces and cities like Beijing, Limning and Shanghai; and there is a trend of ＂horizontal＂ convergence and ＂vertical＂ convergence coexist in 10 provinces and dries like Beijing, Liaoning, Shanhai and Fujian. Big differences among period during which each province and city accomplish their own two kinds of convergence do exist.