收入分配差距、金融信贷约束与中国外贸失衡

Income Distribution Inequality, Credit Constraints and China’s Trade Imbalance

20世纪90年代以来,与中国持续性贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象,就是国内收入分配差距问题日益突出。收入分配差距的拉大,使得中低收入者因占有的社会总产出份额下降而致使其消费和投资能力相对下降,在金融信贷约束下,"过剩"的总产出又难以通过借贷的方式在国内进行消费和投资,最终"被迫"出口到国际市场,因而对贸易失衡产生了重要影响。进一步的计量检验结果验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:收入分配差距和金融信贷约束的确是中国外贸失衡的重要促成因素。据此,在中国实施进出口贸易平衡发展战略的过程中,应该更加关注缩小收入分配差距在其中所起的重要作用。

From the nineties in the 20th century, one of the most important economic phenomena accompanying China＇ s persistent trade imbalance is in- come distribution inequality issue. The increase in income inequality means that the poor and the middle class can only receive a smaller share of aggregate out- put, thus resulting in greater drop in consumption. Under the credit constraints, the excessive aggregate output will be propelled to export while it can＇ t be con- sumed domestically, which exerts great impact on trade imbalance eventually. The further econometric analysis proves the above theoretical hypothesis, that is, in- crease in income inequality and credit constraints contribute to China＇ s trade im- balance to some extent. Accordingly, to narrow the income distribution inequality should receive enough attention when we carry out the strategy of realizing Chinas trade balanced development.