导弹武器系统可用度建模方法研究

Research on Modeling Methods of Availability Based on Missile Weapon System

分析了导弹武器系统可用度模型的分类和建模过程中遇到的关键技术,利用随机过程理论和离散事件仿真方法,从不同角度,建立了用于可用度评估的马尔科夫模型、更新过程模型、离散事件仿真模型和人工神经网络模型。通过对模型的分析,确定各自的适用范围,并从评估精度和评估效率两方面进行比较,结论表明,基于更新过程和离散事件仿真的方法适合于导弹武器系统可用度建模。该方法为导弹武器系统可用度评估提供了新的思路。

The availability model＇s characteristics and the critical technology of missile weapon system were analyzed.From different aspects,the markov model,renewal process model,dispersed incident simulation model and artificial neural networks model were set up for availability assessment by using random process theory and dispersed incident simulation techniques.The scopes of application were made sure.Then,the accuracy and efficiency of the above methods are comparatively analyzed.The results show that the methods based on renewal process and dispersed incident simulation techniques are more applicative to the availability modeling of missile weapon systems.The proposed method can provide a new thinking for solving the problem of the system availability evaluation.