基于分位数回归的二氧化碳排放与经济增长

The Kuznets Hypothesis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth Based on Quantile Regression

选取我国1960～2009年的年度数据,建立了二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系模型,并利用分位数回归方法对我国二氧化碳排放与经济增长倒U假说进行实证研究.研究结果表明,Kuznets的假说在我国二氧化碳与经济增长之间并不稳定,随着碳排放量的增加,我国二氧化碳与经济增长之间先呈现"N型",之后呈现Kuznets的"倒U型",最后演变成一条水平的直线.

Selecting the annual data of China from 1960 to 2009, the relationship model between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth was established by using the quantile regression for empirical research. The results show that Kuznets＇s hypothesis in our country is not stable, because the relationship between carbon dioxide and economic growth first showed ＂N-type＂, then inverted U-shaped, and finally evolved into a horizontal line.