基于系统动力学的集装箱海铁联运运量预测研究

Study on Volume Forecasting of Container Ocean-rail Intermodal Transportation Based on System Dynamics

集装箱海铁联运系统是一个受多因素影响的、非线性、高阶次复杂系统。为了提高集装箱海铁联运系统预测的精度,应用系统动力学理论及方法,考虑系统中腹地经济、对外贸易、运输需求、港口、铁路建设投资等多个基本要素,构建要素间的因果关系图,分析基本反馈关系。在此基础上建立了集装箱海铁联运系统SD(System Dynamics)模型,并应用大连港集装箱海铁联运系统相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,结果证明该模型有效可行,且预测精度较高。

In this paper, using the theories and methods of system dynamics, we considered basic factors such as hinterland economy, foreign trade, transportation demand, and investment in port and railway construction projects, etc., established the causal chart among the factors and analyzed the basic feedback relationship. On the basis of this, we established the SD model of container ocean-rail transportation system and applied it in an empirical study in connection with Dalian Port, the finding of which proved the validity and high accuracy of the model.