信贷供给结构对经济增长作用的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Effect of the Credit Supply Structure on the Economic Growth

本文选取甘肃省1989-2010年度信贷供给和经济增长数据,通过建立VECM模型,对甘肃省信贷供给结构对经济增长作用进行分析,认为甘肃省经济增长与各期限贷款之间存在长期协整关系,且中长期贷款和其他贷款对经济增长的促进作用最为明显。短期贷款对经济增长只有短期的促进效应,并进一步提出对策建议。

The paper analyses the effect of the credit supply structure on the economic growth in Gansu province via establishing VECM model by using the data of credit supply and economic growth of Gansu province from 1989 to 2010. It is considered that there exists a long-term co-integration relationship between economic growth and credit amount of different period, and medium and long-run loans and other loans play the greatest role on promoting the economic growth, while short-run loans has only a short-term promoting effect. The paper finally puts forward countermeasures.