非农就业、社会保障与农户土地转出——基于30镇49村476个农民的实证分析

Non-agricultural Employment,Social Security and Farmer's Land Transfer: An Empirical Analysis Based on 476 Farmers in 30 Towns and 49 Villages

基于江苏省沭阳县的调查数据,对农民非农就业、社会保障与其土地转出意愿与行为的关系进行了实证分析。首先,结构方程模型(SEM)研究结果表明,土地所具有的多重功能价值对农民的土地流转意愿具有重要影响。其中土地的直接经济价值与农民土地转出意愿呈现出负相关关系;土地转出预期价值对农民土地转出意愿的影响最大,农民土地转出的预期回报对意愿具有显著的正向影响;若有完善的非农就业环境与社会保障制度能代替土地本身承载的就业价值与社会保障功能,则会对农民土地转出意愿产生积极的正向作用。其次,Probit和Tobit模型计量检验结果表明,具有非农就业经验以及家庭非农劳动力越多的农民转出其土地的可能性越大,转出的面积也越多;农民参加的社会保障水平越高,土地的保障性功能相对就越小,农民对土地的依赖性越低,从而转出其土地的可能性越大,转出的面积也越多。在此基础上,得出了要大力发展非农产业,营造良好的外部就业环境,进一步完善农村社会保障体系等政策启示。

Based on data through farmer questionnaire survey of Shuyang County in Jiangsu Province, this paper carried out an empirical analysis about the relationship between famers＇ non-agricultural employment, social security and their land transfer intention and behavior. First, the results of the structural equation model （SEM） show that the multiple value of land had an important influence on farmers＇ land transfer intention. The direct economic value of land and farmers＇ land transfer intention had a significant negative correlation. And the expected value of land had the biggest influence on farmers＇ land transfer intention, which means the expected return had a significant positive effect to the intention of land transfer. If there were a perfect non-agricultural employment environment and the social security system to replace the employment value and security function that land bears itself, it would have a positive effect of farmers＇ land transfer intention. Second, the results of Probit and Tobit model show that the farmers who had more non- agricultural employment experience and those families which had more non-agricultural labors had more possibility to transfer their land, and the area was also lager. The higher the farmers＇ social security level, the protection function of land was relatively smaller. Therefore, the farmers＇ dependence on land was lower; as a result, the possibility to transfer their land and the area transferred were both lager. On this basis, the paper drew out the revelation about developing the non-farm industries, creating a good external employment environment and further improving the rural social security system.