中国能源安全分析:基于最优消费路径视角

An Analysis of Energy Security for China: from the Perspective of Optimal Consumption Time Path

进入新世纪以来,中国能源生产不能满足能源需求的强劲增长,导致能源对外依赖性较大,能源进口和海外开发又面临较多挑战。国内能源开发粗放,能源利用效率低下,新能源和可再生能源发展较晚,能源战略储备不完善等问题也很突出。本文在中国具体实际的基础上,通过建立一个简单的两时期消费最优化模型,并综合考虑本国能源与能源进口和海外开发之间、传统能源与新能源和可再生能源的开发与利用之间这两个关键的替代关系及提高能源利用效率的可能影响,得出了中国能源消费的最优跨期消费路径。当前能源消费中的很多问题,包括日益增大的"能源缺口",都源于实际能源消费量严重偏离了这一"最优路径"所规定的消费水平。因此,为了有效缓解乃至从根本上消除中国的"能源缺口",中国能源消费应严格按照此最优跨期消费路径进行,同时尽可能地增加能源进口、加快发展可再生能源和新能源并提高能源使用效率。

From the beginning of the new century, China＇s energy security situation has become increasingly serious. One prominent problem is the growing gap between soaring energy demand and relatively limited growth of energy supply. On the basis of the concrete characteristics of energy demand and supply in China, we developed a theoretical framework to analyze the causes of current energy consumption gap and determined the optimal energy consumption time path accordingly. The basic model was also extended to take account of the possibilities of energy import, development of new and renewable energy, and promoting energy efficiency. The main problems that China＇s economy faces currently, including the growing energy gap, are caused by the deviation from the optimal consumption time path. As a result, in order to efficiently reduce and finally eliminate the energy consumption gap, the actual energy consumption should follow exactly the optimal consumption path determined by the model, and meanwhiles the Chinese government should try every effort to raise energy import, accelerate the development of new and renewable energy industry, and promote energy efficiency as well.