人口规模、资源禀赋与经济增长实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Population Scale,Resources Endowment and Economic Growth

虽然在学界"人口规模"假说和"资源诅咒"假说至今还没有取得共识,但在当今人口危机和资源危机的大背景下,重新审视人口规模与资源禀赋在经济增长中的作用显得尤为紧迫。我国是否存在"人口规模"假说和"资源诅咒"假说?本文构建了新兴古典经济学模型和面板数据模型,得出以下结论:两种假说在中国根本不存在;无论人口规模或资源禀赋状况如何,不同地区均可通过交易效率传导机制实现经济增长。具体来说,不同人口规模或资源禀赋的地区可以积极探索制度改革,提高社会分工水平,大幅改善交易效率,诱导不同类型的社会实验和组织创新,就有可能创造出新的生产力,实现区域经济增长。这些结论一定程度上解决了学界存在的争论,具有重要的理论价值。在政策层面上,由于人口规模、资源禀赋仅是经济增长的两种要素,交易效率才是经济增长的支撑点和动力源,所以政府应该更加重视如何扩大市场容量、促进分工深化和提高交易效率。

Although ＂population scale＂ hypothesis and ＂resource curse＂ hypothesis have yet to be admitted in academia, it is especially urgent to have another look at the roles that population size and resources endowment play in economic growth at the background of population crisis and resources crisis today. Are there ＇＂ population scale＂ hypothesis and ＂resource curse＂ hypothesis in China. By building and analyzing new classical economics models, we draw conclusions that two hypotheses do not exist in China, and it is possible for different districts to achieve economic growth by transaction efficiency transmission mechanism, no matter how population scale and resource endowment are. Specifically, different districts which have different population size or resources endowment situation can create new productive forces and promote the economy fast growth by actively exploring system reform, improving the level of labor division, improving the transaction efficiency greatly, and inducting different types of social experiments and organization innovations. To some extent, the conclusions clarify some debates in the academia, and have important theoretical value. In the policy level, as the population scale and resource endowment are two elements of economic growth, and transaction efficiency is the supporting point and power source of economic growth, the government should pay more attention to expanding the market size, deepening the labor division and promoting transaction efficiency.