新农保能否满足农民的基本生活需要

Can New Rural Social Old-age Insurance Meet the Basic Living Needs of Farmers?

"保基本"为新农保试点的基本原则之一,那么新农保能满足农民的基本生活需要吗?本文选取新农保供给替代率(新农保制度所能提供的养老金替代率)和新农保需求替代率(能满足农村老年群体基本生活需要的替代率)2个指标对该问题做出分析。运用保险精算的方法构建出新农保供给替代率精算模型,在对基本参数做出合理假设的前提下测算出新农保供给替代率。运用ELES模型以及相关预测技术测算出新农保需求替代率。将二者进行比较发现:现行新农保制度所提供的养老金不能满足"老人"、"中人"和大部分"新人"的基本生活需要。因此,建议加大财政补助力度,提高基础养老金的替代率水平;适时提高地方政府缴费补贴标准;鼓励农民尽早开始参保,并选择较高的缴费档次长期缴费;鼓励"老人"、"中人"补缴养老保险费至15年;个人账户基金适时进入资本市场投资运营;适时延长农民的"退休"年龄;继续强化家庭养老、土地保障和社会救助的作用。

＂Meet basic needs＂ is one of the basic principles for the new rural social old-age insurance pilot. This paper selects two indicators of new rural social old-age insurance supply replacement rate （ the pension replacement rate that new rural social old-age insurance system can supply） and new rural social old-age insurance demand replacement rate （the replacement rate that can meet rural older age groups＇ basic living needs） to analyze this problem. An actuarial model of new rural social old-age insuranee supply replacement rate is built to estimate the supply replacement rates under the reasonable assumptions of basic parameters. Using ELES model and related forecasting techniques, it estimates the demand replacement rates. By comparing the two indicators, it is found that the current new rural social old-age insurance system can not meet the basic needs of ＂the old men＂, ＂the middle men＂ and most of ＂the new men＂. Therefore, it gives the following suggestions： Increase financial subsidies to improve the level of basic pension replacement rate ; improve the standard of local government payment subsidies timely ; encourage farmers to join the system as early as possible and pay for a long time at a higher pay grade ; encourage ＂the old men＂ and ＂the middle men＂ to make up the pay for the oldage insurance premium back to 15 years ; personal account funds should enter capital market timely for investment and operations; extend farmers＇ retirement age timely; continue to strengthen the security function of family, land and social assistance.