永定河流域山丘区近6O年降水量变化趋势分析

Trend Analysis of the Precipitation Variation in the Mountainous Area of the Yongding River Basin in the Last Sixty Year

利用永定河山丘区近60年的空间平均降水量资料，采用PCI法、线性回归法、Mann-Kendall检验法、自相关分析法，对其进行年降水的集中度、变化趋势、突变和独立性检验。结果表明：研究区1950年-2009年间的降水是季节性强、相对独立、没有发生突变，且呈缓慢减小趋势，变化率约为-0．86mm／a。

By space average precipitation data of the mountainous area of the Yongding River in the last sixty years, we apply the methods of PCI, the linear regression, Man.Kendall test, the autocorrelation to its concentration in precipitation, trend, mutations and test for independ-ence. The results show that in the study area between 1950-2009 rainfall was seasonal, relative independent,there was no mutation and showed a slow decreasing trend, the rate of change was near-0. 86 mm/a.