我国利率政策的有效性研究

The effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy in China

在传统IS-LM/AS模型基础上放松三条假设后建立了一个简化的总供需模型,籍此探讨利率政策的价格效应及利率政策的有效性。研究表明,在未完全实现利率市场化的条件下,中国的利率政策存在价格效应,且利率政策在控制货币供应量方面效能较低,易导致短期内价格效应大于需求效应,限制了利率政策的选择空间;总体来看,中国在控制物价过程中倚重于数量型货币政策工具是现阶段的最优选择,可有效化解利率政策的价格效应,促进货币政策有效传导。

With three hypotheses loosened based on the traditional IS-LM/AS model,we have established a simplified gross supply and demand model to deal with the price effect and effectiveness of the interest rate policy.The study shows that under the condition that the marketization of the interest rate is not actualized completely,there is price effect in China′s interest rate policy and the effectiveness of the interest rate policy in the aspect of controlling monetary supply is relatively low,thus limiting the space for choosing the interest rate policy because it is easy to make the price effect in a short term lead to getting greater than the demand effect.On the whole,it is the optimal choice at the present stage for China to rely on the quantitative type monetary policy tool in the process of controlling price so that the price effect of the interest rate policy can be defused to promote valid conduction of the monetary policy.