基于CMS模型台湾农产品对大陆出口变动分析

An Analysis of the Changes in Export of Taiwan's Agricultural Products to Mainland——Based on Constant Market Share Model

大陆是台湾地区农产品出口外销的重要市场,20多年来,台湾农产品对大陆出口快速增长,产品结构也在发生变化。本文应用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对1992—2011年台湾农产品出口大陆的变动进行分析,结果表明:加入WTO以后,规模效应逐渐成为台湾农产品出口大陆市场的主要来源,而ECFA协议的签订将这种效应进一步放大;竞争效应在初期是保持台湾农产品出口大陆增长的主要因素,然而随着大陆农产品市场国际化程度的不断深化,台湾农产品的竞争力出现了衰减,竞争效应逐期下降,并出现负数,这应该引起两岸农业决策者的关注。

Mainland is now an important market tbr export of Taiwan＇s agricultural products. Over more than 20 years, the export of Taiwan＇s agricultural products to mainland has showed a rapid growth and experienced a big change in product structure. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the export changes of Taiwan＇s agricultural products to mainland from 1992 to 2011 by using the Constant Market Share Model （CMS）. The result shows that the scale effect has gradually become the main source of the growth of Taiwan＇s agricultural products export after joining the WTO, and this effect has been magnified by the signing of ECFA agreement. On the other hand, the competition effect proved to be the main factor for sustained growth of Taiwan＇ agricultural products export in its early stage. However,with the deepening degree of internationalization of the mainland agricultural market, the competitiveness of Taiwan＇s agricultural products is on the decline. So the departments concerned both in Taiwan and mainland should be fully aware of this trend.