恐怖袭击下危险品运输网络节点风险评估方法

Evaluating of Coming Hazardous Materials Transportation Network Node Risk under Terrorist Attack

为解决危险品运输网络节点遭恐怖袭击风险评估的模糊性和随机性问题,提出基于云模型的评估方法。以恐怖分子视角,确定以"节点可识别性"、"节点可接近性"、"节点的象征性与轰动效应"和"危害性程度"组成节点风险评估指标集,并采用专家咨询的方法确定节点风险评估指标对应的权重云。通过综合云模型综合评价者给出的最大和最小评价值,采用云变换的数据驱动法确定节点风险对应的评价云。根据云算术运算规则对网络节点风险进行评估。结果表明,实例的评价节点云参数为(0.636 9,0.046 1,0.005 7),隶属度为"较危险",解决了节点风险评价的模糊性和随机性量化问题。

In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness in evaluation of hazardous materials transportation network node risk of coming under terrorist attack, a method based on cloud model was worked out. Firstly, from the view of terrorist, ＂node identifiability＂, ＂node approachability＂, ＂node symbolic ＆ sensational effect ＂ and ＂harm degree＂ were regarded as node evaluation index set, and weight clouds of node evaluation indexes were determined by Delphi method; Secondly, the maximum and minimum evaluation values given by evaluators were combined by synthetical cloud, then evaluation cloud corresponding to node risk was determined by data-drive approach based on cloud transformation. Finally, the node risk was calculated by arithmetic rules of cloud. An example shows the validity and the feasibility of the method.