基于SAS的调整人群归因危险度评估法在口岸流行病学调查中的应用研究

Application Study of the SAS Based Parc Evaluation Method for the Epidemiological Investigation at Ports of Entrance

[目的]探索调整人群归因危险度评估法在口岸流行病学调查中的应用。[方法]基于回归模型的调整RR估计加入到PAR估计中,以一整套公式计算调整控制一个或多个变量后的PAR指标,评估多因素影响的口岸流行病发生频率及控制效果,并采用国际权威的统计分析标准软件SAS分析平台进行编程实现。[结果]以宁波口岸某病流行病学调查资料为数据源,对与该病相关的四种风险影响因素由计算机分别自动计算调整人群归因危险度,在校正其他三种因素的基础上,评估每种风险因素所致的危害程度,结果为风险因素A所致的危害占11.8%,风险因素B占30.8%,风险因素C占15.9%,风险因素D占38.2%。[结论]调整人群归因危险度能够评估导致口岸传染病流行风险因素的单独效应,可作为评价流行病发生与控制效果的有效评估方法。

[Objective]To explore the application of the evaluation method of PARc for the epidemical investigation on Ports of Entrance（PoE）.[Methods]Adjusted RR based on the regression model was added to the estimation of PAR.A series of formulae were adopted for calculating the index of PAR after one or multiple variables was controlled,then the frequency and control effect of epidemical diseases were assessed at PoE.All the processes were executed by computer based with SAS software.[Results]The epidemical data of some diseases at Ningbo port were served as the data source.PARc of four relevant risk factors were calculated respectively after the other three variables were controlled,which was executed automatically by computer.The risk factor A occupied 11.8 per cent,risk factor B occupied 30.8 per cent,risk factor C occupied 15.9 per cent,and risk factor D occupied 38.2 per cent respectively.[Conclusion]PARc can evaluate the separate effect of risk factors which leads to the epidemic of infectious diseases at PoE.Thus it could be an effective method for assessment of the epidemic and the control of infectious diseases.