环渤海经济区服务业差异时空演变及影响因素分析

The Spatial-temporal Evolution of Disparity of Service Industry and Influence Factors Analysis in Bohai Rim Economic

基于Theil系数、服务业重心模型、收敛与分散分析、逐步回归分析等方法,对环渤海经济区服务业差异时空演变及影响因素进行深入分析。研究表明:①环渤海经济区服务业差异主要由省区内部差异贡献,1992—2000年差异略有缩小,由省区间差异变小引起,而2000—2010年差异扩大显著,由京津冀内部差异扩大引起;②1992—2000年沿海地区以收敛为主,内陆地区以发散为主。2000—2010年辽宁省东西部以向下发散为主,中部以向下收敛为主;京津冀东部以收敛为主,而西部以发散为主;山东省整体以收敛为主;③环渤海经济区服务业发展的影响因素主要有人均GDP、内外部联系、经济密度、消费能力、政府支持力度。④从时间演变来看,经济发展水平一直环渤海服务业发展是最重要影响因素,服务业发展从市场供给导向逐渐的转化为需求导向。

Based on Theil coefficient and its first order decomposition,the service center of gravity model,convergence and scattered analysis and stepwise regression analysis methods were used to deeply analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of disparity of service industry in Bohai rim economic.Research shows that： 1） Disparity of service industry in Bohai rim economic was mainly contributed by provinces internal disparity.Disparity reduction slightly mainly due to the disparity become smaller between the provinces during 1992 to 2000,while to expand significant disparity for 2000 to 2010,because of the internal disparity between the beijing-tianjin-hebei region expanded significantly.2） Convergence divergence more than numbers Between 1992 and 2000,on the space aspects,coast areas to give priority to convergence,while inland areas to give priority to spread.3） The main of influence factors of disparity of service industry in Bohai rim economic are per capita GDP,the inner and outer contact,economic density,consumption capacity,government support.4） Rules of the influence of services in Bohai rim economic is the level of economic development has been an important influencing factors and the development direction of gradually from the market supply into demand guide.