基于综合风险的电网灾难性事件预警评估

Assessment of Power Grid Catastrophic Event Forewarning Based on Comprehensive Risk

电网作为刚性动力学系统,结构复杂性在增强其应对偶发故障鲁棒性的同时也增大了其应对连锁故障的脆弱性。结构决定功能,但两者之间的复杂关联致使故障对电网造成的风险很难完整刻画,从网络拓扑结构入手,进行网络剖分,解耦结构与功能之间的复杂耦合关系,再基于不确定风险分析理论,综合考虑故障显性风险和隐性风险,通过联系数理论建立基于两者的完整风险评估指标,完整地刻画出灾难性事件的系统风险。并建立了基于C#的商业应用评估软件,以此对西部某地区实际电网进行风险评估,结果证明本方法所得结果符合工程实际,所建商业应用平台直观、友好、结果可靠。

Power grid is a stiff dynamic system,so its structural complexity can enhance its robustness to emergent faults,but meanwhile increase its vulnerability to cascading failures.The complicated correlation between structure and performance makes it difficult to depict the risk of catastrophic events in power system commendably.Based on the highly coupled relationship between network topology and electrical operation state in the physical properties of power grid,a new method based on uncertainty risk assessment theory and connection number theory is proposed.This proposed dynamic comprehensive assessment method takes into account of static direct risk and dynamic potential risk to work up the comprehensive risk index by the use of connection degree between them.Then,the C#-based commercial evaluation software is established,whereby risk assessment was conducted for the actual power grid in one western region.It is shown that the results derived from this proposed method accord with the reality,and the commercial application platform constructed for the customers′ requirements is direct,friendly and reliable.