日本会爆发主权债务危机吗？

Studies on the Possibility of a Japanese Sovereign Debt Crisis

日本是目前全球发达经济体中公共债务占比最高的国家,但并未爆发主权债务危机,其原因主要在于:健康的实体经济、稳健的金融业以及相对较低的失业率为主权债务提供了信用支撑;低通胀、低利率降低了发债成本;高储蓄率保障了国债的高自持率;财政支出稳定、健康,未来增税空间大;保持经常项目盈余,并拥有庞大的外汇储备与海外资产。但是,从长期来看,日本债务问题并非高枕无忧,在经济长期低迷的情况下,日本国民消化债务的空间终将有限,若低通胀与经常账户盈余终结,可能爆发债务危机。不过,由于可通过增税与量化宽松手段应对,危机的影响将可控。日本债务危机问题对中国的启示有三。一是要坚持金融服务实体经济发展,防止出现虚拟经济过度膨胀;二是与日本相比,中国仍存在税负较重,债务成本较大,财政支出偏高等结构性问题;三是要合理利用外汇储备,积极扩大海外投资。

Among the developed economies across the world,Japan has the highest public debt ratio.But it has largely avoided the attack of a domestic sovereign debt crisis.Several factors count.First,Japan ’ s public debt is supported by its healthy real economy and sound financial sector,as well as a relatively low unemployment rate.Second,low inflation and interest rates have reduced the cost of the debt issue.Third,with the high household saving rate,most of Japan ’ s public debt has been held by domestic buyers.Fourth,Japan has a healthy and sound fiscal expenditure level and there is still ample room for tax hikes in the future.Last,but not least,Japan has maintained a current account surplus for many years and boasts a large pool of foreign exchange reserves and oversea assets.However,in the long term,Japan ’ s public debt problem will bring severe challenges.If its economic woes continue,the space for its domestic buyers to digest its public debt will be limited.If it no longer has low inflation and a current account surplus,a debt crisis may break out.The impact of such a crisis,however,could be limited because the Japanese government could increase taxes and launch quantitative easing to combat the crisis.Japan ’ s debt problem can serve to remind China of its potential risks.Its financial sector must serve the real economy and the excessive expansion of the virtual economy must be prevented.Moreover,compared with Japan,China ’ s public finance is facing structural problems,such as a heavy tax burden,the high cost of debt and disproportionate fiscal expenditure.China must use its foreign exchange reserves more rationally and actively expand overseas investment.