人民币低估之谜：一个投入产出分析

The RMB Undervaluation Puzzle:An Input-Output Analysis

所谓"人民币低估之谜",包含两方面事实:一是人民币实际汇率随经济增长而持续贬值,二是西方学界普遍认为人民币实际汇率近年来存在大幅度低估。本文认为,中国日益恶化的地区间竞次,导致各部门单位产出的中间投入和工资成本不断下降,进而通过三种价格乘数效应严重压低了中国的物价和工资水平,是产生"人民币低估之谜"的主要原因。本文对标准的投入产出模型加以拓展,以两个在中国存在严重"竞次"现象的部门(公路货运业和煤炭开采业)作为案例,利用投入产出表来模拟竞次的价格水平效应。模拟结果显示,竞次可以充分解释"人民币低估之谜"。本文表明,要使人民币实际汇率达到并维持在合理水平,必须对中国的地区间竞次加以有效治理,这要求中国经济体制的全面改革和经济发展模式的转型。

The ＂RMB undervaluation puzzle＂ refers to two related facts： 1 ） that the RMB real exchange rate has been depreciating along with China＇ s strong economic growth; 2） that most Western researchers agree that the RMB is seriously undervalued in recent years. We propose that this puzzle is mainly caused by an inter-regional race to the bottom in China, which reduces average input usage and labor cost, thus seriously depressing the general price and wage level through three types of ＂price multiplier effects＂. We extend the standard input-output model to simulate the price-level effect of racing to the bottom in two key sectors （road transportation and coal mining） , using actual input-output data. The results show that, quantitatively, our model can fully explain the ＂RMB undervaluation puzzle＂. The implication is that in order for the RMB real exchange rate to reach and remain at a proper level, inter-regional race to the bottom in China must be effectively tackled, which entails a radica｜ overhaul of China＇ s economic system and the transition of its development model.