我国国际资本流动:直接投资与非直接投资影响因素的比较研究

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS TO CHINA:COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND THE NON-DIRECT INVESTMENTS

本文基于向量误差修正模型对1982—2010年期间我国直接投资类、间接投资类(含其他投资)、错误与遗漏及投资收益类三种类型国际资本流动的影响因素进行了实证研究。实证检验结果表明:在长期,我国三类国际资本流动与人民币对美元的实际汇率升贴水年率之间为负向变动关系,与中美利差、中美通胀之差、我国实际经济增长及人民币对美元的实际汇率预期之间为正向变动关系;在短期,三类国际资本流动与上述影响因素之间关系并非一致;实际经济增长是我国直接投资类国际资本流动的主要原因,人民币对美元的实际汇率预期是我国非直接投资国际资本流动的主要原因。

The paper empirically studied on the affecting factors on the three types of international capital flows of the direct investments, the indirect investments （including other investments）, and the er-ror and omission and the profit from investment during 1982-2010 in China. VEC tests turned out that the three types of international capital flows were negative relations with the premium and discount annual rate of the RMB against USD real exchange rate, and positive relations with the spread of interest rate, in-flation between China and USA, and China＇s real economic growth, and the expectation to the real ex-change rate of RMB against USD in the long term. The relations between three types of international cap-ital flows and the four affecting factors above-mentioned were different in the short term. The variance de-composition turned out that real economic growth was the leading course of international capital flows of the direct investments, and the expectation to real exchange rate of RMB against USD was the leading course of international capital flows of the indirect investments （including other investments）, the error and omission and the profit from investment.