发展中五国森林减排政策的比较研究——基于结构变量“REDD+机制”政策评估方法

Comparison of Forest Emission Reduction Policies in Five Developing Countries Based on the Policy Assessment Method for "REDD + Mechanism" with Structural Variables

本文在成功努力补偿法的基础上提出了结构变量"REDD+机制"政策评估方法,使之适用于森林覆盖率持续增加的国家。将经济发展、人口增长、初始森林面积、农产品出口价格和林木产品出口价格作为结构变量,对1990-2009年巴西、中国、印度、印尼和墨西哥五个发展中大国的森林减排政策进行了实证分析。研究表明,森林增长率与初始森林面积、人口密度负相关,而与人均GDP、农产品出口价格和林木产品出口价格正相关。中国和印度的个体固定效应更加显著,而时间固定效应呈现上升趋势,并对这五国前REDD+年代的森林政策效果进行评估。

The policy assessment method for REDD ＋ mechanism with structural variables is proposed for the countries with increasing forest cover based on the method of Compensated Successful Efforts. Based on panel data from Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Mexico during 1990- 2009, an empirical analysis for forest emission reduction policies is performed by economic development, demographic growth, initial forest area, agricultural commodities export prices and tim- ber export prices as structural variables. Research findings indicate forest growth has negatively correlated with initial for- est area and population density, and positive correlated with GDP per capita, agricultural commodities export prices and timber export prices. The cross - section fixed effects of China and India are more significant, and the period fixed effects show an upward trend. Finally, the forest policies of these countries are assessed during the pre - REDD ＋ period.