小麦条锈病中长期流行趋势预测方法探讨

Discussion on the forecasting method of mid-long term epidemic trend of wheat stripe rust

小麦条锈病的流行程度取决于寄主的感病性、菌源数量、气候条件三大因素[1]。寄主的感病性是小麦条锈病发生流行最为重要的因素,但在生产实际中,寄主的感病性的变化幅度较小,比如甘肃小麦感病品种种植面积多年来一直保持在85%左右,是一个极为有利的状态,理论上全省小麦条锈病年年都应该大流行,但事实并非如此。

Based on wheat stripe rust occurrence of key area and period, the epidemic trend of wheat stripe rust in other areas or future periods were forecasted. To identify quantity of pathogen and weather factors correlated to stripe rust epidemics and development, the correlation and regression analyses were conducted by using wheat stripe rust oversummering occurrence area, autumn seedling occurrence area and historical wheat stripe rust occurrence data in 2001 to 2011. Three forecasting models were built and applied. The results of application indicated that these models could precisely forecast wheat stripe rust epidemics.