中国全要素生产率:基于分省份资本折旧率的再估计

China’s Growth in Total Factor Productivity:a Re-estimation Based on Provincial Capital Depreciation Rate

本文从资本折旧率入手,根据我国1978～2010年分省份数据,首先估算各省份不同时期(分3个时期)的资本折旧率(每个省份分3个时期估算折旧率),重新计算资本存量,并在此基础上对全要素生产率进行再估算。另一方面,我们也假定每个省份的折旧率相同(分别取5%、7%和10%),重新计算全要素生产率,并与每个省份分时期采用不同折旧率的结果相比较。通过研究,我们发现:(1)资本投入对我国经济增长的贡献最大,全要素生产率也起着重要作用,1979～2010年我国全要素生产率的平均增长为2.48%,对经济增长的贡献为24.9%。(2)近10年来,我国经济增长对投入要素的依赖较大,这对我国经济的可持续发展提出了挑战。(3)如果每个省份分时期采用不同折旧率,所得结论与相同折旧率的结果存在较大差异。

Starting from the capital-depreciation rate (CDR) and based on the provincial data in China between 1978 and 2010(these years are divided onto 3 periods),we have,firstly,estimated the CDR of each province (the CDR of each province is divided into three periods) and then re-calculated the values of the capital stock.Based on these results,we have re-estimated the total factor productivity.We have also assumed that the CDR of each province is the same (5%,7% and 10%,respectively) and re-estimated the total factor productivity and compared these results with the re sults obtained if we use different CDR of each province in each period.By our study,we have discovered that (1) the capital input has been the most important contributor to China ’s economic growth,the total factor productivity has also played an important role,the average growth rate of China ’s total factor productivity between 1979 and 2010 has been 2.48%,its contribution rate has been 24.9%; that (2) during the last decade,China ’s economic growth has depended on capital input more heavily than before and it has been a challenge to maintaining China ’s steady and sustainable economic growth; and that (3) if different CDR is used for each province,the conclusion made will be significantly dif ferent from that if the same CDR is used.<