房地产、经济增长与宏观经济政策

Real Estate,Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Policy

近年来房价上涨成为社会关注的热点,房价在中国不同区域差异很大。房地产对社会发展而言存在财富累积效应,能促进经济增长,但房地产市场一旦出现非理性行为,则会产生房地产泡沫甚至引发金融风险。土地财政、收入分配的两极分化、供需双方的价格预期以及国内金融支持和国外资金流入,是导致我国房地产扩张过快的主要因素;同时,中央政府的经济政策对房价的调控效果受到地方政府、开发商、银行等利益集团的制约。因此,对房地产市场的调控应找到一个合适的均衡点,不能引发短期的经济衰退,更不能膨胀泡沫。从长期来看,不能把房地产作为一个支柱产业来发展,应积极发展新兴产业和培植新的支柱产业;同时,要加快税收体制改革和收入分配体制改革。

In recent years, the rise of housing price becomes the social focus and the housing prices are very much different in different places of China. Real estate, in terms of social development, has wealth accumulation effect and can promote economic growth but can give rise to real estate bubble and even lead to financial crisis when non-rational behaviors emerge in real estate market. The main factors to cause too fast enlargement of real estate of China are land finance, two-polarization of income distribution, price expectation between supply and demand, domestic financial support and inflow of foreign capital, meanwhile, the regulating effect of central government on housing price is restricted by local government, developing businessmen and banks. Thws, the regulation on real estate market should find a proper balance point, should not cause short-term economic retreat and should not mushroom the bubble. From long-run point, real estate should not be taken as a pillar industry but emerging industries should be actively developed and new pillar industries should be cultivated, taxation system reform and income distribution system reform should be accelerated.