黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风发生趋势探讨

Analysis on the Occurring Trend of Dry-hot Wind in the Huanghuaihai Winter Wheat Region

为给黄淮海地区冬小麦抗干热风育种和栽培提供科学依据,基于黄淮海地区52个气象站1961-2010年50年5月11日至6月10日的逐日最高气温、14时空气相对湿度和14时风速资料,利用气候趋势和相似性分析法分析了黄淮海冬小麦生长后期干热风的发生趋势。结果表明,黄淮海大部分区域平均日最高气温呈现下降趋势,14时空气相对湿度呈现增加趋势,14时风速呈现减小趋势,单一要素达到干热风标准的日数呈现减少趋势。干热风发生的主导因子是日最高气温,其次是14时空气相对湿度,14时风速是次要因子。说明黄淮海大部分区域发生各级干热风的趋势有所减小或显著减小,这对当地冬小麦高产、稳产有利,但在气候变暖背景下,极端气候事件频发,不能完全排除发生极端高温灾害事件的可能性,而且一小部分区域存在有利于干热风发生的要件,因此对干热风的防御仍不能掉以轻心。

Based on daily maximum air temperature, air relative humidity and wind speed at 14 o＇clock over 52 meteorological stations in Huanghuaihai winter wheat region from May 11 to June 10 during 1961-2010, the possibility of dry hot wind occurrence was analyzed by means of climate trend and similitude methods. The results showed that, in the most of Huanghuaihai region, a decreasing trend had been observed for the mean daily maximum air temperature and wind speed at 14 pm , but it was opposite for the air relative humidity at 14 pm. The daily maximum air temperature played an important role for the occurrence of dry hot wind weather, and the wind speed as the second. So in the most area of Huanghuaihai region, the occurring trend of dry hot wind are getting smaller, this is advantageous for a good and stable harvest of winter wheat, but it should be noticed that extreme climate event frequently appears, and then extreme dry hot wind event may be possible, especially for some areas, so it should keep in mind for the prevention of dry hot wind in wheat production.