基于组合预测模型的节能降耗目标设置研究——以陕西“十二五”节能降耗目标设置为例

Research on the Energy Saving Goal Setting Based on the Combination Forecasting Model——Taking the Shaanxi in the 12th Five-year Plan as an Example

科学合理设置节能降耗目标是实施节能目标责任制和节能考评的关键,然而,节能目标又是未来一个时期某一区域经济发展与能源消费关系的预期目标,因此要科学合理设置节能降耗目标就要对未来经济发展和能源消费有准确的预测。以陕西为例,采用灰色GM(1,1)预测、多元自回归预测、二次曲线外推预测三种模型来构建组合能源消费预测模型,根据组合预测模型预测的能源消费结果和生产总值的预期增速来测算及设置节能降耗目标,据此提出科学合理的设置节能降耗目标的对策建议。

Setting up energy saving goal scientifically is the key to carry out energy conservation target responsibility system and energy saving evaluation. However, energy - saving goal is an expected target of a regional economic development and energy consumption in future. Thus, in order to set up a scientific and rational energy saving goal, an accurate forecasting for the future economic development and energy consumption should he made. In this paper, taking Shaanxi as an example, energy consumption forecasting model is constructed by the gray GM （ 1, 1 ） forecasting, multivariate auto - regressive forecasting, and quadratic cure extrapolation forecasting. Energy saving goal is set up by energy consumption forecast and expected GDP growth, by which countermeasures are put forward.