基于系统动力学的地下水资源承载力仿真研究

Simulation of Groundwater Resources Reserve Capacity Based on System Dynamics

研究地下水资源承载率准确预测问题,关于地下水资源承载力是对区域地下水开发利用状况的一种定量描述。地下水资源承载力研究很重要。采用定性和定量相结合的方法,建立地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型。以陕西省为例进行仿真,预测2011-2025年陕西省不同发展策略下各指标数值。在此基础上,采用综合评价方法计算不同策略下地下水资源承载力的数值,最终得出承载状态。仿真结果表明:地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型能够动态仿真和调控地下水资源承载力。研究结果可为陕西省地下水开发利用规划的制定提供一定的理论依据。

Groundwater resources reserve capacity is a quantitative description of regional groundwater exploitation.Groundwater resources reserve capacity study is very important.In this paper,we combined the qualitative and quantitative methods to establish the groundwater resources reserve capacity system dynamics model,and simulated a series of indexes of different developing tactics for Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2025.On this basis,we adopted the comprehensive evaluation method to measure the capability of each tactic in different solution,and finally obtained the reserve states.The simulation results show that,the system dynamics model can simulate and adjust the groundwater resources reserve capacity.The results can provide a theoretical basis for making the groundwater development and utilization plan of Shaanxi Province.