研究型大学科技活动动态综合评价——来自截面数据的双激励控制线分析

Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation on S&T Activities of Research-oriented Universities——Dual-excitation Control Line Analysis of Cross-section Data

引入双激励控制线方法构建了双激励控制线动态综合评价模型,通过对科技活动在时间上的离散和动态集结,从时间和空间角度对我国不同区域的10所代表性研究型大学在2004—2008年的科技活动进行了动态实证评价,有效揭示了各评价对象在各时间点上的"激励"与"惩罚"面积及演变特征,反映了时间、空间等因素与高校科技活动的演变关系.通过计算各指标的敏感性系数,找出了敏感性权重属性指标.结合研究型大学科技活动特征,分析了研究型大学科技活动投入与科研成果产出之间的互动机制,从时间角度分析了10所研究型大学的动态演变轨迹,揭示各高校的变化趋势和特点,从空间角度比较了各高校科技活动差异的原因,从属性指标权重影响角度找出敏感性权重属性指标和临界条件,提高了排序结果的准确性,为研究型大学科技活动管理提供决策指导.

In order to reflect the relations of time, space and other factors with the universities＇ S＆T activities, the dualexcitation control line method is used and the dynamic comprehensive evaluation model is set up. S＆T activities of 10 representative research-oriented universities from different areas in China from 2004 to 2008 are dynamically evaluated.By calculating sensitivity coefficients of each index, sensitive indicators are found. Combined with the characteristics of S＆T activities of universities, it analyzes their input-output mechanisms; expounds the dynamic evolution trajectories of10 research-oriented universities in terms of time, and reveals their changing trend and characteristics; compares the reasons causing the discrepancy of S＆T activities of each university in terms of space; finds the sentive indicators and theircritical conditions, which improves the result accuracy, offers decision guidance for research-oriented universities.