电力变压器经济寿命模型及应用实例

Economic Life Model of Power Transformer and Its Application

提出了一种电力设备经济寿命的评估方法,该方法以年均净收益最大为优化目标,通过比较检修和更换2种情况下的年均最大净收益,做出是适用检修还是适用更换的决策。以电力变压器为例,分析了其寿命周期内各项经济要素及规律,包括收益、各种实际成本、风险成本等,分别就检修与更换2种情况建立了年均净收益的数学模型。最后,以一台实际的220 kV电力变压器为实例,进行了经济寿命预测的实证研究,结果表明该模型可操作性强,预测结果符合实际,对于电网企业实现电力设备运营的精益化管理和合理延长电力设备寿命具有实际意义。

A method to predict economic life of power equipments is put forward.Taking the maximization of annual average net income as the optimization objective,the decision of which one is more appropriate between overhauling and replacement is made based on comparing annual average net profit under the two conditions.Taking the power transformer as example,the economic factors and rules within its life circle,including profit,actual cost,risk cost and so on,are analyzed,and mathematical models for overhauling and replacement are established respectively.Finally,taking an actual 220 kV power transformer as the case,the empirical research on prediction of its economic life is performed.Research results show that the proposed models possess strong operability and the prediction results by the proposed models conform to practice.The proposed models are significant to the implementation of advanced management of electric power equipment by power grid enterprises,and are of practical significance for the prolongation of equipment life cycle.