中国石油资源前景与未来10年储量增长趋势预测

OIL RESOURCE PROSPECTS AND RESERVE FORECAST IN CHINA IN NEXT DECADE

石油作为重要的战略物资在国家安全与国民经济发展中占有举足轻重的地位。我国石油资源比较丰富，尚未探明的石油资源中有经济性、可持续勘探的资源比例较大。立足国内勘探以最大限度地满足国民经济发展的需要，具备资源基础。然而石油工业发展也面临着剩余资源质量变差、储采比递减与供需矛盾加剧等多方面挑战。实现中国石油工业可持续发展在立足国内石油勘探的同时，要加大天然气资源利用的力度并加强对国外石油资源勘探与分享的比例。预计未来10年国内石油勘探年增探明储量仍可保持“九五”以来的水平，其中东部与中西部地区增储比例大致持平，东部老区勘探在未来10年石油工业发展中仍占有重要地位。海洋石油探明储量预计在“九五”水平上，会有大幅增长。

Oil is an important strategic material that plays a critical role in state security and national economy development. China isrich in oil resource. Among unproved resource, commercial and sustainable exploration resource has a large percentage. There isa resource base for basing on domestic exploration to meet the requirement of domestic economic development to a maximum.However, petroleum industry is facing the challenges that remained resources are becoming poorer, reserve-production ratio isdecreasing and the contradictions between supply and demand are sharpening. To keep sustainable development of petroleum in-dustry should be based on the domestic exploration firstly, and then increasing the utilization of natural gas resources and en-hancing the proportion and shares of oil resource exploration overseas. It is estimated that the increase of annual proved reserveswill be maintained at the level of the 'ninth-five plan'. The increase of oil reserves in the west will be the same as the east inChina. The exploration for old oil provinces in the east will still play an important role in the next decade. It can be predictedthat the offshore-proved oil reserves in the next 10 years will increase faster than those in the 'ninth-five plan'.