基于贸易引力模型的中印FTA的贸易扩大效应分析

The Analysis of Trade Expansion Effect of China-India FTA on the Basis of Trade Gravity Model

建立FTA(自由贸易区)最重要的经济效应是能带来成员国间贸易规模的扩大,把代表自由贸易安排的虚拟变量纳入引力模型,对中印建立FTA的贸易扩大效应进行了定量分析,认为中印两国间还存在巨大的贸易潜力,两国若能在目前经贸关系发展的基础上进一步实现FTA这种制度性合作,将使双边贸易产生质的飞跃。

The most important economic effect of establishing Free Trade Area is to promote the expansion of trade between member--states. The paper introduces the dummy variables which is on behalf of the free trade arrangement into the gravity model and analyses trade expansion effect of forming FTA between China and India by using quantitative analysis. The result indicates that there is still agreat trade potential between the two countries. If the two countries cooperate on the regional trade mechanism in the form of FTA further on the basis of the current economic and trade relations, there will be able to generate a qualitative leap in bilateral trade.