我国煤炭、石油和火电消费对碳排放的影响——基于VAR和VEC模型的分析

The Impact of China's Coal,Oil and Thermal Power Consumption on Carbon Emissions——Analysis based on the VAR and VEC model

我国碳排放量于2008年超过美国成为全球第一排放国,因此,我国的碳排放数量及排放路径倍受世界关注,未来的经济发展必将面临减排的严峻挑战。基于此,本文采用1978～2010年碳排放量、煤炭消费、石油消费以及火电消费量的数据,利用VAR模型和VCE模型,考察煤炭、石油和火电消费对碳排放产生的影响。

China＇s carbon emissions surpassed the United States and became the world＇s first emitter in 2008, the situation is very serious. Our long--term carbon emissions quantity and emission pathways will be concerned around the world, facing pressure from home and abroad, development in the future will be faced with severe challenges. In this context, this paper chose the 1978--2010 carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption and thermal power consumption data, and used the VAR model and VCE model to study the impact of China＇s coal, oil and thermal power consumption on carbon emissions. Found that There were the co--integration relationships between coal, oil, thermal power consumption and car- bon emissions, and their contribution to carbon emissions.