二元经济条件下巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应分析

The Analysis of Balassa-Samuelson Effect Based on Dual Sector Model

改革开放以来中国经济经历了持续高速增长,但实际汇率变动情况与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说不甚吻合。为解释这一现象,文章在分析我国二元经济下工资传导机制的基础上,以城市化率作为衡量二元经济结构的变量,提出了包含该变量的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应拓展模型,并运用ADF检验、特征根估计和协整估计,对2000-2005年和2005-2010年两个时期的经验数据进行实证研究。结果表明,二元结构特征通过工资传导机制削弱巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的有效性,且二元结构特征越明显,这种削弱程度越强。由此推断随着经济的发展和二元结构特征的减弱,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应将日益显著。

The trend change of RMB's real exchange rate has not matched the Balassa-Samuelson effect quite well when China's economy roars since the reforming and opening-up policy.To explain the phenomena,the paper analyzes how the wage transmitting mechanism operates in dual economy and builds a corrected Balassa-Samuelson Model with urbanization rate,which reflects the dual economy.Also,ADF test,latent root estimate and co-integrated estimate are used to do empirical study on data from 2000-2005 and 2005-2010.The result shows that the dual structural characteristics weaken the effectiveness of Balassa-Samuelson effect by disturbing the wage transmitting mechanism and the more notably the dual structure characteristics is,the stronger the influence will be.So it can be concluded that the Balassa-Samuelson effect will be more markedly with the development of economy and the weakening of dual structural characteristics.