国家能力与中国经济增长的可持续性

State Capacity and the Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth

经济经过30多年快速的增长,中国经济发展的可持续问题受到越来越多的关注。即便不考虑资源和环境的问题,中国经济发展对投资和出口的过多依赖已经变得越发不可持续。导致中国经济对投资和出口的过度依赖的主要原因是家庭消费不足,而这要归咎于收入不平等的加剧和社会福利供给的不足。这些问题的出现与中国的国家能力减弱有关。尽管如此,中国的国家能力在未来的一个时期仍然足以解决相关的问题。国家能力的增强会促进更加可持续的发展模式的形成,这需要政府获得大众更多的支持。

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the sustainability of China＇s eco-nomic growth is attracting more and more attention. Putting aside environmental prob-lems, the over-dependency on investment and exports is making Chinese economy more and more unsustainable. The main reason for this over-dependency is insufficient house-hold consumption, which in turn is mainly caused by the rising income inequality and the problematic welfare system reforrm The fundamental reason for this is the weake-ning of China＇s state capacity. However, China＇s state capacity is still strong enough to handle the problem in the near future. And China has started to strengthen the state ca-pacity in recent years, which requires the government to gain more support from the mass.