广东省人均收入增长收敛的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Per Capita Income Growth Convergence at City Level in Guangdong Province

运用探索性空间数据分析方法,以人均GDP为指标,对广东省2000—2010年21个地市的人均收入增长进行收敛分析。结果表明:地市尺度的收入水平存在显著的全局正相关性及空间异质性,且空间相关性呈现整体强化的趋势,说明若以标准β-收敛模型进行估计结果势必出现偏误与不一致,故有必要采用空间计量分析省区内收入增长的地区差异。进而,通过空间计量估计,发现空间误差模型是比较合适的模型。与标准β-收敛模型相比,收敛方向虽然没有发生变化,但是却从不太显著的收敛趋势转变为显著的收敛趋势,且收敛速度明显上升,说明在制定省区内部区域政策时应充分重视区域间的空间相互作用与溢出效应,从而实现缩小区域发展差距的目标。

Through testing the spatial correlation among per capita GDP between 21 cities in Guangdong Prov- ince from 2000 to 2010 with exploratory spatial data analysis, we find that there exists significantly global positive correlation and spatial heterogeneity at city level, with the trend rising globally. The result is that if we use the standard E-convergence equation, the estimated results will appear biased and not consistent. Therefore, it is nec- essary to take spatial econometrics to analyze the regional disparity in income growth. After taking the spatial econo- metrics analysis, we discover that spatial error model is more appropriate and compared with the standard β-conver- gence model, although the convergence direction doesn＇ t change, the distinctly convergent trend has taken the place of indistinctly convergent trend and the speed of economic convergence increases significantly. The policy im- plication is that we should pay more attention to spatial interaction and spillover effect between different regions when issuing the regional disparity and economic policy at provincial scale. Only in this way can the objective of narrowing the regional disparity be reached.