摘要
本文通过建立向量自回归模型,分析了货币政策对房地产价格的影响机制,研究发现,货币政策通过利率和信贷渠道会影响房地产价格。本文进一步通过格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析方法,研究了房地产价格与货币政策之间的双向关系,认为货币供给与房地产价格之间存在长期稳定关系,货币供给与信贷规模均会影响到房地产价格,利率对房地产价格有显著影响,房价的提高会倒逼货币供给的增加,并使得货币在M1与M2之间转换。
Through establishing vector quantity autoregressive model, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to real estate price. The results show that monetary policy affects real estate price through interest rate and credit channels. Moreover, via Granger causality test and impulse response analysis, this paper studies the hi-directional relationship between monetary supply and real estate price. There is long-term stable relationship between monetary supply and real estate price; both monetary supply and credit scale affect real estate price; interest rate has remarkable influence on real estate price; the increase of real estate price will reversely make money supply increase and make money transfer between M1 and M2.
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2012年第9期31-34,20,共5页
South China Finance
