资本账户开放与金融不稳定的国际经验分析

International Experiences of Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Instability.

本文基于1982-2009年G20成员国的面板数据,运用二元Probit模型分析资本账户开放与金融危机之间的关系,实证结果表明:诱发系统性金融危机的主要因素取决于资本账户开放方式的选择,而不是资本账户开放程度的高低。渐进式的资本账户开放更有助于维护金融系统的稳定。

This paper uses binary-Probit model to analyze the relationship between capital account liberalization and financial crisis based on the panel data of G20 members from 1982 to 2008. The empirical analysis results show that it is the capital account openness method of choice that induced systemically financial crisis rather than the degree of openness of capital account. The gradual capital openness can maintain the stability of financial system better.