影响公司并购绩效的宏观因素分析——基于边限协整理论的实证研究

The Analysis the Macro Impact Factors of Firm M&A Performance Based on the Margin Co-integration Theory

采用边限检验法、Toda-Yamamota因果检验法以及自回归分布滞后模型对影响公司并购绩效的主要宏观因素进行了协整分析。结论表明:(1)公司并购绩效与宏观经济发展状况、资本市场发展状况以及利率和货币供应量之间具有协整关系;(2)公司并购绩效与宏观经济发展状况、资本市场发展状况以及利率和货币供应量之间存在着双向的因果关系,表明结论(1)是稳健的。

This paper sets the ECM model to analysis the influence of main macro factors for the firm M＆A per- formance by using the the Margin test, Toda- Yamamota causality test and autoregressive distributed lag approach （ARDL）. the results show the two facts. First, there is the Co - integration relationship between firm M＆A per- formance and main macro factors that are the rate, money supply, macro economy and the capital market. Second, there is the two - way causality relation between firm M＆A performance and those factors, and it is testified that the first conclusion is steady.