规模猪场猪瘟风险评估模型的建立

Establishment of Risk Assessment Model of Classical Swine Fever for Scale Pig Farms

根据现场调查、经验判断、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议、风险矩阵分析等方法,确定了规模猪场猪瘟发病的各项风险因素;采用两两比较和层次分析法,分别计算出各项风险因子的组合权重系数,包括猪瘟发生的风险分值及其赋值方法,初步建立了风险评估模型。筛选10个曾经发生过猪瘟疫情的规模猪场对风险评估模型进行田间应用试验并根据风险预警结果进一步修订和完善了指标体系,最终建立了规模猪场风险评估模型。风险评估模型共有41项风险因素,可归并为10大项,39个普通项,2个关键项;采用电脑软件可进行评估结果的自动汇总和统计分析。建立的规模猪场猪瘟风险评估模型可对猪瘟的发生风险进行科学的预警、评估。

Based on field surveys, experience, judgment, Delphi method, expert assessment, risk matrix analysis method, the risk factors of occurrence of classical swine fever in scale pig farms were determined. Two methods of pairwise comparison method and AHP （analytic hierarchy process） are adopted .to respectively calculate combination weight co- efficients of many risk factors, including occurrence of classical swine fever risk score and assigmnent method, and preliminarily establish a risk assessment model. Ten large scale pig farms where classical swine fever epidemic oc- curred, were selected to make a field application test about risk assessment model, to revise and perfect the index system according to results of risk warning, and finally establish a risk assessment model of large scale pig farms. In this risk assessment model, there are 41 risk factors which can be grouped into 10 major items, 39 ordinary items and 2 pivotal items; Using computer software, assessment results can be summarized and analyzed automatically. Classical swine fever risk assessment model in this study could make an early scientific warning, assessment for risk of occur-rence of classical swine fever.